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Musk Says Orbital Compute Will Outpace Earth Data Centers by 2028
Elon Musk replied on X on Friday, October 30, 2026, to a SpaceX revenue chart published by investor Shaun Maguire. According to Musk, orbital compute deployed each month will probably exceed terrestrial compute around the end of 2028 and far exceed it in 2029. The charts assume SpaceX's terrestrial compute capacity in its Space Infrastructure business grows from about 1 GW early in 2026 to 21 GW by the end of 2028. Maguire, a partner at Sequoia Capital, described the model as a 50th-percentile forecast with wide error bars.…
- Musk expects orbital compute to exceed terrestrial by late 2028
- Model assumes 21 GW terrestrial at SpaceX by end-2028, up from 1 GW
🔎 Why it matters: Musk presents a forecast, not a deployment schedule: he set no gigawatt target or satellite count for 2028. The figure depends on Maguire's model (50th percentile, wide error bars) and on Star Mind satellites that are still planned.
📈 Upside: Star Mind satellites are designed for formations with more than 250 kW of solar power per satellite.
📉 Risk: If SpaceX's terrestrial capacity does not grow from 1 GW to 21 GW as the model assumes, the crossover projected for 2028 would not occur.
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