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Tesla quietly lowers 2026 capex guidance to over $20 billion
Tesla has reduced its 2026 capital expenditure (capex) forecast. In its third-quarter 10-Q, the company says it expects capex « to be in excess of $20 billion » in 2026, down from « more than $25 billion » it had guided since April. The change appears in the 10-Q filed Wednesday, not in the shareholder letter released the same day. So far this year, Tesla has spent $13.01 billion on capex. In the third quarter it reported $1.53 billion of free cash flow, a figure that depends heavily on timing, such as payables.…
- 2026 capex guidance now over $20 billion, down from over $25 billion.
- Cumulative 2026 capex: $13.01 billion through the third quarter.
🔎 Why it matters: The change appears only in the third-quarter 10-Q, not in the shareholder letter released the same day. It replaces the more than $25 billion guidance communicated since April.
📈 Upside: To meet the new figure, Tesla would need about $7 billion in the fourth quarter, compared with about $12 billion to reach $25 billion.
📉 Risk: Much of the $1.53 billion free cash flow comes from payables and deferred revenue, including $588 million billed to SpaceX for undelivered Megapacks that has not been collected.
🤖 Editorial summary of the cited source, with AI-assisted analysis -- not HgYperDrive original reporting. The original source is linked above for verification. More on how this works: editorial policy →