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Tesla Q3 2026 earnings preview: flat revenue, falling profits

📍 Electrek

Tesla will report its third-quarter 2026 results on October 21, after the market closes, with the earnings call at 5:30 p.m. ET. Wall Street consensus expects revenue of $28.06 billion, essentially flat against the $28.1 billion of Q3 2025, and non-GAAP earnings per share of $0.45, down 10% from $0.50 a year earlier. Tesla delivered 486,532 vehicles, above the consensus of 461,974, although energy storage deployed 13.7 GWh, below the roughly 15.9 GWh analysts expected. In the second quarter, EPS was $0.33 against $0.53 expected, and the operating margin fell to 1.4%.

🔎 Why it matters: The Q3 2026 results come after a 1.4% operating margin and negative free cash flow of $1.09 billion in Q2, so the expected EPS of $0.45 will be the first benchmark to watch.
📈 Upside: Deliveries exceeded production by 22,141 units, the second consecutive quarter in which Tesla reduced inventory.
📉 Risk: Automotive gross margin excluding regulatory credits fell to 16.3% in Q2 from 19.2% in Q1, and energy storage came in below expectations.
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