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New Wharton forecast delays Social Security trust fund depletion date
The Penn Wharton Budget Model (PWBM) forecasts that the Social Security trust fund for retirement benefits (OASI) will be depleted in February 2033, slightly later than the fourth quarter of 2032 projected by the official Social Security trustees report. When combined with the disability insurance trust fund, the depletion date extends to February 2035 according to PWBM, compared to the third quarter of 2034 in the official report. PWBM anticipates that after depletion, 86% of scheduled benefits will be payable, dropping to 60% by 2100. The analysis highlights the need for significant changes
- PWBM projects OASI fund depletion in February 2033
- Combined with disability fund, depletion in February 2035
- Payments after depletion would drop to 86%, then 60% by 2100
🔎 Why it matters: The Penn Wharton Budget Model's forecast on the OASI trust fund depletion date and 4.65% actuarial deficit are critical for Social Security reform planning.
📈 Upside: The later depletion projection provides additional time to implement necessary reforms.
📉 Risk: Without reforms, the actuarial deficit will grow and benefits could be significantly reduced.
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